10. Weekly Betting Review: Small Profit, Big Lessons

Hello Again,

Once again, I’m back with a mini write-up of how the week fared. It was another profitable week, netting a nice +0.76 units, but once again, indiscipline cost me dearly.

AFL: An Expensive Lesson in Discipline

I'm pretty annoyed with myself. Last week, I mentioned that I don't give this sport the time or energy it deserves and that I should step away from it for the rest of the year. What did I do instead? I arrogantly decided I had an edge and, as a result, donated more money back to the bookies. I dived into markets I had no idea about, other than to chase a little dopamine, and I found out the hard way, again. It ended up being -0.66 units for the week.

Cricket: Mind Over Market

What a topsy-turvy week it was. The story is one I’m far too used to: I went all in and over-leveraged myself on two markets. I did this in both the final T20 between Australia and the West Indies, as well as the first T20 between the West Indies and Pakistan. I know I’m not in the greatest form mentally, because when I am, I never over-leverage and I’m happy to lock in a loss when the market moves against me.

This time, though, I let my bias get in the way. I had numerous opportunities to exit for a minor loss, or even at net zero. But I didn't. I wanted to hold on for a mammoth win. Unfortunately, out of the 10 games I traded, I ended the week dead even despite a 70% win rate.

Seeing this grinds my gears, but it also gives me some confidence. It tells me that I'm reading cricket well enough to still win 70% of my trades. From a pure trading perspective, I’m identifying value and making money. But finishing the week at 0 units after a 70% win rate shows me that my mentality needs fixing. It means I’m shooting too big and letting losses run longer than they should. This is a problem that needs addressing, and it’s one I’ll look to close out during the course of the 100.

NRL: My Anchor

Finally, last but not least, my favorite. NRL. I just feel so in tune with the competition. I feel like I have a good grasp, and I'm making money routinely. I ended the week with +1.4 units on the NRL, and had the Dolphins not scored a heartbreaking last-minute winner, I would’ve gone close to 2.5 units for the week.

Interestingly, my mindset for NRL is so much better. While I bet on both Cricket and NRL at the same time, I can differentiate the NRL and control the mental game much better. I wanted to jump on the Sharks line in the last game of the round, but I decided against it. Not because I didn't believe in the line, but because I wanted to give my mind a break and show that I was still in control. I sat through it, and my bet would have won easily, but I wasn't upset or angry; I was content.

This Week's Takeaways

All in all, it's been a good week. To walk away +0.76 units up is always nice. It’s a tough game to play, and at the end of the day, profit is profit. It’s hard to achieve and should be celebrated. But I do know that going forward, I have to tighten a few loosened screws.

I have to completely give up AFL, knuckle down on my trading, and lock in losses earlier in Cricket. I also need to continue putting in the work I'm doing for NRL. It's a tough journey, but I keep telling myself how rewarding it is. While 0.76 units isn’t a heap, it’s still something. And to know that I could double it by getting rid of AFL and potentially triple it by locking in losses better in cricket leaves enough for me to come back and do it all over again next week and the week after. It's a long game, and I've made some mistakes, but I've got time on my side, and I want to grow through this process and show both the good and the bad.