23 - Week 3: $1,900 Profit and the Italian Job

Wow, what a week. $1,941 profit at nearly 16% ROI. This was a week where I actually behaved and acted like someone who takes this seriously. Let’s look at the damage: 63 bets, 43% win rate. I spent the week backing higher odds, and for once, the variance swung heavily in my favour .

The Numbers: Betting vs. Trading

• Cricket Betting: +$1,200. (A massive outlier here: I caught a $500 win at $51 odds thanks to the Italians in the World Cup).

• Cricket Trading & Run Lines: +$400.

• AFL/NFL/NRL: +$300 (Stable 12% ROI).

It’s crazy to think that set-and-forget betting generated 3x the profit of trading and run lines this week. While the $51 winner was a stroke of luck, I expect trading and run lines to surpass the betting in the long run as the "boring" consistency takes over.

The NRL Frustration: The "Fox" and the Fade-Out

The NRL was the thorn in my side this week. After the Women’s All-Star match, I was up $500. I went into the Men’s game feeling clinical. I was on Over 40.5 and Josh Addo-Carr for 2+ tries.

After 15 minutes, the live total was sitting at 53.5. I was 13 points clear of my line. Usually, you’re home and hosed, but the game completely died—not a single point scored in the final 25+ minutes. To cap it off, the "Fox" had a second try disallowed. My biggest bet of the day went down, and I finished the NRL session with a minor loss.

The Iteration Dilemma: Flair vs. Flat Stakes

That game got me thinking about my strategy for the upcoming NRL season. I know the stable, "Boring" move is to stick to Lines, H2H, and Totals. But the data tells me I’m more profitable with alternate lines and margins.

The problem? Iterations. When you ladder bets (e.g., -4.5, -8.5, -12.5), the ROI is higher, but the emotional tax is brutal. When it misses, it’s a wipeout.

I’m currently battling two things:

1. Staking Logic: With a flat line, the stake is simple. With iterations, do I cap the "To Win" value or the "Max Liability"?

2. The Tilt Factor: I need a measure to stop me from "loading up" on the next market after an iteration wipeout.

The fact that I’m actually debating staking plans and emotional guardrails before the season starts is a huge win. Normally, I’d just wing it.

Total P&L Update

We are rolling. $1,941 added to the pile.

• Weekly Profit: $1,941

• Total Profit: $2,431.44 / $10,000 

All in all, a great week. 16% ROI is elite. I’m starting to find the balance between being brave enough to back the $51 shots and disciplined enough to walk away when the NRL total stalls.

Hopefully, the good times roll.