Week 11: Perfectionism & $5000 in Losses

It has been a while since I've updated this blog. Six weeks ago was the last time I actually sat down and documented the journey. Life simply got in the way. Between punching out 55+ hour work weeks, relentless travel for infrastructure projects in the bush, coastal weddings, and the Easter break, my routine didn't just bend—it proper snapped. I keep thinking I’m time-poor now, but I know I'm in for a massive reality check in a few weeks once Bub arrives.

The Diagnosis: Perfection-Based Routines

After looking back and reviewing what went wrong, I think I’ve found the diagnosis: perfection-based routines with no margin for error. Balance isn't a word that features much in my life; I’m either all in, or I’m all out.

I’ve lived this way for years. When I decided to reduce meat consumption, I didn't just cut back, I didn't have a single piece of meat for six years. When I wanted to reduce alcohol, I dropped it to zero, I'm now 16 months and counting without a single drop. While this "all-in" mentality brings discipline to my work, it has a dark side. There is no margin for error. It’s perfectionism with no balance, meaning when I trip, I trip off the side of a cliff. If I leak one little crack in my diet, my brain goes, "If it's not perfect, it's not worth it at all," and I spend the next few days gorging because a fail is a fail regardless of size.

The Snowball Effect

Back to betting: if I fall out of routine, you can bet your bottom dollar that profits are minimal, or in this case, even losses. The second I couldn't sit at my own desk or have undisturbed time to sift through the markets is the time I should’ve just enjoyed life and forgotten about betting. Instead, because I couldn't have "perfect," I decided "fuck it" and kept punting. I started gathering momentum the other way, like a snowball down a mountain, I began picking up pace with larger, shittier bets, and my profits followed that trajectory.

The $5000 hole

The last six weeks have been appalling from a betting perspective. Tracking every individual bet from this hiatus would be a mammoth effort that I simply don’t have the time for. However, thanks to monthly statements, I’ve managed to work out the damage: roughly $5,000 in losses.

Instead of chasing perfection by backtracking every cent, I’m recording that $5,000 loss as a single "smooth" losing run on the charts and moving forward. My goal is to resume some sort of normality, and not waste the small amount of time that I do have looking back rather than forwards.

Moving Forward: Relying on Instinct

I’m realising for the first time that I can’t just keep adding more to my plate. The plate is full, and to put something on, I have to take something off. Moving forward, the strategy has to be simple and easy to execute:

• Bet Early: Place wagers early in the week when I am undistracted.

• Chunk the Work: Use spare 15–20 minute windows to preview one game at a time.

• Accept "Good Enough": My new motto is "near enough is good enough".

  
  

Most importantly, I need to start aiming to be human rather than a machine. All days aren't equal. There are going to be days where I feel like a Kit Kat, so I'll have it and then go back to being healthy. There will be days I feel like placing a multi; I'll just place it with real small stakes to get it out of the system and keep moving, rather than going "fuck it" because it's not perfect. I’m moving away from hard deadlines and toward a more free-flowing reliance on intuition and instincts, and going to rely more on "feel" and riding out the natural wave of being a human.

Week 11 Review: A Sunday Salvage

To summarise this week, I'm stoked. I tipped 6 winners and found plenty of value in what felt like a week of minefields. While I wore a loss backing the Storm not to lose a fourth straight, Sunday was a "golden run". Everything that was bet, hit. I was all over both the Titans and the Tigers, and it was nice to see them both win comfortably.

Simplify the process. Near enough is good enough.

See you next week.