25 - Week 5 results. Surviving a bloodbath.

Pez
18 hours ago
3 min read

Week 5 was a massive test of discipline and a humbling reminder of the age-old battle between the bottom line and the internal process. While the week ended in a minor loss, the data shows both a worrying and promising trend. NRL skyrocketing and Cricket in freefall. This mightn’t be the worst thing considering the NRL is about to go full swing whilst Cricket has its off-season and is probably the sign I need to know which one to switch off.

The Big Picture (Week 5)

* Total Staked: $7,328.23

* Total Returned: $7,119.46

* Weekly Net: -$208.77

* ROI: -2.85%

* Strike Rate: 30% (6 Wins / 20 Bets)

NRL Analysis: Winning Results, Mixed Process

My NRL performance essentially "saved" the week, bringing in +$909.30 in net profit. However, sitting down to review the process, the quality of my execution was all over the place.

The Good (Knights vs. Cowboys):

* Bet: Knights Line (+3.5) @ $1.93.

* Outcome Win $700+

I stayed within the staking limits I set pre match. Even taking a small -$50 hit on a Same Game Multi (SGM), my total exposure was calculated, manageable, and disciplined. This is the blueprint for the rest of the season.

The BAD (Bulldogs vs. Dragons):

* Bet: Bulldogs H2H @ $1.40.

* Outcome: Win $300+

* Analysis: Yes, it won, but this was a major leak. I risked $750 to win a relatively small amount on a short-priced favorite. This is the exact "high-liability, low-reward" behaviour that leads to proper emotional derailment if it goes wrong. This is exactly the type of bet I need to stamp to protect the bankroll from future catastrophic losses. This is the sort of bet that derails a good week. The worst part, I had mutiple chances to get out at halftime knowing it was a bad bet, and I didn’t take it.

SGMs: I took two losses for -$97.50. Per my new framework, these need to remain firmly capped at $50 so they don't eat into the profits generated from my core Line betting.

Cricket Trading: The Bloodbath

Let's call it what it is: Cricket Trading was an absolute bloodbath this week. It was the primary source of my variance, ending with a net loss of -$1,118.07 across 16 separate trades.

However, there is a massive silver lining here. Despite losing almost every single match I traded (won 4/12), it was a relatively manageable loss. This is lightyears ahead of where I used to be. In times gone by, I would have struggled to exit the loss, frozen in the red, and allowed a bad session to completely wipe out my account. By actually taking the loss and walking away, I lived to trade another day.

Moving Forward: The Week 6 Goal

Right now, the data is screaming at me: I am subsidising my Cricket Trading losses with my hard-earned NRL profits.

NRL Strategy: I have a clear edge and am developing a professional, sustainable staking framework. Whilst the current ROI isn’t maintainable the edge in this sport has always been clear.
Cricket Trading: might be time to dial it back. All your usual profitable events (BBL) are well and truly behind you. From here, it’s obscure games with minimal liquidity at horrible hours. No need to churn the wheels here to make minimal money or even losses. Time to put cricket on ice until the next major franchise or international tour.

Year-To-Date Summary: Where We Stand Currently

To put Week 5 into perspective, I sat down and pulled the overall numbers from the 2026 Tracker. It is always good to zoom out and look at the full data to see what is actually working.

Overall Results:

* Staked: $38,916.22

* Returned: $42,017.11

* Total Net Profit: $3,100.89

* Overall ROI: 7.97%

* Strike Rate: 38.75% (62 Wins / 160 Bets)