24 - Week 4. Resilience and Iteration Losses

Week 4 was a real roller coaster and a humbling reminder of how quickly things can turn if I lose focus on the fundamentals. It was a week where I had to navigate a pretty deep hole early on, and while I’m grateful to finish in the green, the data shows I still have a lot of room to improve my discipline.

The Numbers

It was a high-volume week, and although the win rate was low, I managed to stay the course long enough for the math to eventually swing back in my favour by the weekend.

• Total Staked: $13,388.68

• Total Returned: $14,266.64

• Net Profit: +$877.96

• ROI: 6.56%

• Win Rate: 34.04%

Light at the End of the Tunnel

The week really was a tale of two halves. From Monday to Thursday, I was staring at a significant drawdown. Monday’s player props went 0-for-9, and by Thursday night, I was down nearly $2,000. It was a stressful spot to be in, but I’m proud that I didn't panic or deviate from the stake sizes that the models called for on Saturday.

The recovery came through sticking to the "Boring Fundamentals." The NRL markets and some solid cricket trading on Betfair on Saturday provided the wins needed to wipe out those early losses. To go from $2k down to nearly $900 up feels like a massive win, even if it was a stressful way to get there.

The "Iteration Tax"

When I looked deeper into the numbers, I found a clear pattern where I was essentially "taxing" my own success. I separated my "One-Off" bets (where I found a match edge and moved on) from my "Chased Iterations" (where I kept doubling down on the same player prop).

The Breakdown:

• One-Off Bets: $11,580.68 staked for a +$2,467.21 profit (21.30% ROI).

• Chased Iterations: $1,808.00 staked for a -$1,589.25 loss (-87.90% ROI).

The math is a bit of a wake-up call: for every $100 I made on my solid, sharp plays, I effectively gave $64 back to the bookies by chasing player props that just weren't landing. If I had simply avoided those iterations, the week would have been three times more profitable.

The "Bethell" and "King" Leaks

I fell into a bit of a trap with "laddering", betting on the same player to hit 25, 50, and 75 runs separately.

• The Bethell Case: I created a single point of failure. When he failed, I lost $670 on a single game.

• The King Case: I had two separate lines that both relied on him performing. When he didn't, it was a $365 hit instantly.

Fatigue and Work-Life Balance

I have to be honest with myself about why these leaks happened. Between Monday and Wednesday, I was putting in huge hours at my engineering job. I realized that I was firing off bets on Bethell, Butler, and King with only seconds to spare before the match. With Bethell, I even jumped on live and added to the damage while I was tired.

This week taught me that when work is intense and fatigue sets in, I need to dial things down. Trading while distracted or exhausted is the opposite of "Boring Fundamentals."

The Path Forward: The Rule of Two

To keep the Baby Fund on track and protect the bankroll as we head into Week 5, I’m implementing a few new personal guardrails:

1. The Rule of Two: I’ll limit myself to a maximum of two iterations per player, per match. No more triple-laddering.

2. Unlink Props: I need to ensure my bets don't have a "single point of failure" where one player getting a duck ruins multiple tickets.

3. Prop Freeze: I'm going to cut my player prop volume by 50% next week and put that energy back into the NRL models that are actually performing.

Overall Progress

Despite the hurdles this week, the long-term view is encouraging. Since starting this journey, I have staked a total of $31,587.99 with $34,897.65 returned, leaving the Baby Fund with a total profit of $3,309.66. This represents a total ROI of 10.48% across 136 bets. We are over 30% of the way to the $10,000 goal, and while the path isn't always smooth, the discipline is paying off.