9. Weekly Betting Review: Disaster Avoided and Lessons Learned

Hello Again,

I thought I’d jump back on and share a transparent review of how the betting week unfolded. Overall, it ended up profitable, but I honestly consider myself lucky to be in the black.

NRL: A Bloodbath Averted

My biggest money-maker, NRL Lines, turned into an absolute bloodbath this week. I went a dismal 2/7 on line bets – a true massacre. It's usually at this stage of the season that I see teams with little to play for pack it in and suffer massive losses. Here I was, thinking the Eels, Titans, and Rabbitohs, in particular, would fit this mould. How wrong I was! Not only did two of them cover their double-digit lines, but they went on to win outright. Unbelievable.

Somehow, though, I walked away unscathed, thanks to some large odds bets pulling me back into profit. A few of those lifesavers included Bunnies Halftime/Sharks Fulltime at $8, both Tommy Starling and Brailey as anytime try-scorers at $5, and the Storm live at $6 once Hughes went off. If it wasn't for those landing, I'd be staring at a huge loss. Fortunately, they all did land, pulling me back into profit.

This outcome has really got me thinking. My Lines, which have historically been my biggest winners, are currently running at half the ROI of my longer odds bets in League. Both are profitable, but I'm operating at a much higher ROI with the longer shot bets at $5+. So now I'm conflicted: do I double down on the long-range bets? Purely statistically, I should. But it's the mental side of it that I'm not sure I'm up for yet. While it's a higher ROI, there are going to be strings of perhaps 10 losses in a row at those odds. I'm not sure if my mental game is quite at the level to sustain that and not do something silly. Sure, one day I will be, but unfortunately, I know that I'm not quite good enough to do so yet. Lines, on the other hand, are far less likely to put me through such a bleak stretch.

What did I learn from the NRL weekend? I suppose that it's still unpredictable, which is why I love the sport. On top of that, it's to pursue long-range bets, but with only small stakes for now. While the wins have come frequently at those odds, I know it's only a matter of time before it flips, and I cop some negative variance. But for now, I'll continue as per usual.

AFL: Why do I even bother?

This will be the shortest write-up ever. While I was once profitable here, I'm not anymore. I don't give this the time or respect it deserves, so I should absolutely not be betting in it. Once again, another 0.5 units down the drain because I was bored and went looking for a bet that wasn't there. If I want to bet this, great, I need to put the research in, otherwise forget about it.

Cricket: Trading Too Much, Too Defensively

Cricket was good again, though I traded far too many markets – a total of 29! That'd be fine when tournaments like the IPL or Big Bash are on, but absolutely not at this time of year. Nine of those markets were junk, and I copped the losses I deserved. Through boredom and fear of missing out, I found myself betting in games involving Cayman Island T10, Samoa, Hong Kong, and Malaysian games. All that extra 'work' and stress, all to show for a 1-unit loss, eradicating the 1.5 units of profit I made on proper markets featuring the Australia vs. West Indies series and India vs. England series.

I suppose the biggest takeaways here are to calm down and to let these 'shit' matches go. The price of boredom for the week? 1 full unit. The reason for my frustration, apart from blowing a full unit, is the crux of why I do this: to free up time for future Pez to do more of what he likes. Instead, I found myself giving away my time, going against the very thing I'm striving for. This week the goal is simple: there are 8 games of cricket I'll look to trade. Six Afghan T20s, which have proven profitable to date, as well as a few T20s between Pakistan and the West Indies. That's all I need to focus on.

The other thing I've noticed with Cricket is that I've been gun-shy this week. I've taken money out of the market a bit too quickly for my liking. Usually, I'm aggressive; however, this week, I've found myself being defensive. Normally, a defensive mindset shows me I'm in a great place mentally, as I'm risk-averse and happy to take smaller, more frequent wins. However, this time, I feel like I was almost a little too defensive and left profits on the table. My strategy has been the same for the past few months: have a dabble in the first innings, and then when I've got a decent read on the game, drop the hammer in the second. Whereas this week, I took my profits in the first, and though having a few decent angles or reads, been gun-shy backing again in the second. This too has possibly cost me another full unit.

I suppose I need to find that sweet spot again, where I'm willing to lose in order to win. In NRL, I've got the mindset down pat, but for some reason with Cricket, switching gears has been tough lately. In the NRL, I can easily back a team at long odds and not be affected if it goes down, whereas with Cricket, I need to follow that same bravery I have with NRL. At my best, I'm defensive first innings and aggressive in the second. Something to definitely work on going forward.

The Week's Takeaways

Overall, the week was a positive one. I came out almost 2.5 units up and managed to do so in what seemingly was a tough week. The best part is, there are some easy fixes in there too to improve on this:

* Don't bet on random markets because I'm bored.

* Be more aggressive with Cricket. Risk a loss in order to win.

* And don't bet AFL.

Also, finally, thought I’d leave you with a small video that I’ve watched multiple times. Think CP3 sums it up perfectly: https://youtube.com/shorts/DAg-d0tXztA?si=Z6RUBqWY6B_PPB0R