Round 14 Preview: Hopeful for a Rebound

Round 14 is here, and I'm hopeful of trying to make some money this week. Last week I was feeling super apprehensive, thinking that all the positive variance from Round 12 would go against me. I went into the week expecting a bloodbath, and to be honest, it almost felt like one had it not been for the Tigers' comeback and a few other key results that went our way. In saying that, we still experienced some hard luck: Zac Lomax missing an easy conversion that would've ended the first half in Panthers vs. Eels even, hence landing a $10 bet. To add to that, we had Tyrell Sloan, who did all the hard work but dropped the ball over the try line, once again resulting in a two-point swing against us. All in all, we escaped last week at -0.0325 units. Hardly a bloodbath.

Now, with that context, let’s look ahead to Round 14.

Knights vs. Manly

It’s last chance saloon for the Knights, and I truly believe they’ll lift here. Manly at those odds away is untouchable for me. While the Knights have been truly awful, I’m sticking up for them. I think Kalyn Ponga will be better for the rest, and that they’ll lift here against a Tom Trbojevic-less Manly, a team I still have limited trust in.

* Bets:

* 1 unit $1.90 Knights +7.5

* 0.1 unit $10.5 Manly lead halftime and lose

* 0.1 unit $9.5 Halftime margin draw

* 0.5 unit $2.75 Fletcher Sharpe ATS

* 0.35 unit $3.50 Ponga ATS

* 0.25 unit$4.25 Knights -4.5 first half

Storm vs. Cowboys

Earlier in the week, I was going to back the Storm for a landslide victory, but the markets have well and truly factored this in. The Storm are unbackable at the current line, as they’ve been far less consistent than the normal Melbourne Storm we're accustomed to. That being said, I still think they run up a score on the Cowboys. The Cowboys have looked brilliant in glimpses this year, but their inability to defend against good teams makes me think the Storm could run up a cricket score. In particular, the Cowboys' left edge has some serious issues at the moment. It can’t all be pinned on Paulo, who played his first game for the season last week, but I do think that this new addition probably hasn’t had the time to gel in defense and build the chemistry required to trust his partner and defend on the edge. Hence, I’ll be looking to target this side come game day.

* Bets:

* 1 unit $1.95 Storm into Grant Anderson Anytime Try Scorer (ATS)

Dolphins vs. Dragons

Honestly, I have no idea who wins here. I tend to have a soft spot in betting for the Dragons and always feel they’re often undervalued for a team containing Clint Gutherson, Damien Cook, and Zac Lomax. However, if the Dolphins turn up, the Dragons are no chance to keep up with them. This is a team that has beaten the Storm and put 44 points on the Bulldogs only a fortnight ago. All this in mind, I’m still going to pull the trigger on the Dragons. Night game with dewy conditions hopefully slows the scoring down and therefore brings the Dragons' line into play. I'm thinking that this will be closer and lower scoring than the market predicts, and hence there’s some value on offer.

* Bets:

* 1 unit $1.90 Dragons +6.5

* 1 unit $2.08 Neither team to 30

* 0.1 unit $10.0 Halftime Margin Draw

* 0.1 unit $10.0 Dolphins Halftime, Dragons Fulltime

Sharks vs. Warriors

The Sharks are coming off a bye, while the Warriors are off a pretty convincing win against the Rabbitohs. I expect a flat spot from the Warriors. They’ve had one of the ugliest draws I can remember, constantly traveling back and forth. Surely they have a flat spot here – then again, I’ve been saying that for the last month. Expecting the Sharks to come out guns blazing, fresh off a bye.

* Bets:

* 1 unit $1.90 Sharks -6.5

* 1 unit $1.90 Sharks Second Half -4.5

* 0.1 unit $9.75 Niukore Anytime Try Scorer (ATS)

* 1 unit $1.93 Sione Katoa Anytime Try Scorer (ATS)

* 1 unit $2.16 Jesse Arthars Anytime Try Scorer (ATS)