NRL Round 13 Preview

Round 13: Nervy after a big week.

Round 13 of the competition is here, and it's time to find some value. This round feels particularly tricky. While Origin is over and most stars are named to back up, it just has a tough feel about it. Last week was my biggest of the year, which means this week, I'm a touch gun-shy. Maybe it’s about protecting profits, or perhaps it's the worry that I captured all the positive variance last week and will experience some negative variance this time around. Either way, the only thing to do is keep backing value and let the chips fall where they may.

With that in mind, let’s get started.

Dragons vs. Knights

The first game of the night, and to be honest, it's not the usual Friday night blockbuster we're accustomed to. Two struggling teams, one coming off a big win, and the other off an emphatic win before the bye. I really like the Dragons here. While the Knights were good last week, they won against what was effectively a reserve-grade Penrith side. Their first half was blistering, and while they looked like a new team, they came back down to the Knights of 2025 in the second half. They struggled to score points, only managing a solitary point from a field goal late in the game. I expect more of this today. While Ponga’s back, I personally think their attack benefits from having Sharpe in the one jersey.

The Dragons, on the other hand, get Val back, and the money man in Tuipulotu. They should be fresh from their week off after a gutsy win against the Broncos at Suncorp. I think they should have too much in attack for the Knights to deal with, especially out wide while Greg Marzhew and Bradman Best are out. The Knights, conversely, I expect to have another lull week after 80 minutes in the rain against Penrith.

* Bets:

* 1.0 unit $1.90 Dragons -4.5

* 1.0 unit $1.82 Sloan Anytime Try Scorer

   * 0.2 unit $3.94 Knights Total Under 10.5

Titans vs. Storm

Honestly, I've got no idea what to expect here. The Titans have been disappointing, but the Storm have been pretty unpredictable themselves over the last five weeks, winning only two of those games. Craig Bellamy surely can't be happy with the Storm's output recently, and while they sit on the fringe of the top 4, this game is pretty important for them to stay in the hunt and potentially push for the top two later in the year. That being said, I can't trust the Storm to cover -13.5, but I also equally cannot trust the Titans to stay within 13.5 points of them. This game truly leaves me with no clear idea, except the fact that their should be points.

 * Bets:

   * 1.0 unit $1.90 Total Points Over 51.5

Cowboys vs. Tigers

The Cowboys were starting to look like the form team of the competition a month ago, but they've stalled in recent weeks. Tough losses to Manly and the Warriors, plus a draw against the Panthers, have certainly halted any momentum they were building. The Tigers, on the other hand, are coming off two disappointing losses to both Souths and a hiding from the Storm. All things being equal, I want to be with the Tigers here with the start. The Galvin situation is finally behind them, and they can move forward with the squad they've got. They should all be fresh after a week off, with no Origin players to back up, while the same can't be said for the Cowboys. While I don't think the Tigers can win, I certainly think they can keep this close.

* Bets:

* 1.0 unit $1.83 Tigers +10.5

* 0.25 units $4.60 Tigers -4.5 1st Half Handicap

* 0.1 units $11.00 Cowboys to lead at Halftime and Lose

* 0.2 units $5.10 Samuel Fainu Anytime Tryscorer

* 1.0 unit $1.87 Tigers over 19.5 points

Manly vs. Broncos

Big game here, and potential for match of the round. It’s a must-win for both sides. It pains me to say this, but I’m on the Broncos. I usually hate backing against home underdogs, but this feels very winnable for the Broncos. Manly are a shell of themselves without Tom Trbojevic, and to add to that, Daly Cherry-Evans looks uninterested and unthreatening, especially if Origin form was anything to go by. The Broncos, on the other hand, are a team that has the capabilities to level up and reach gears that Manly can’t without Turbo. Hence, if the Broncos are any chance to make a run in finals, they absolutely must win this.

* Bets:

* 1.0 unit $1.90 Broncos -3.5

* 0.6 units $2.65 Ezra Mam Anytime Scorer

Rabbitohs vs. Warriors

Hmm, another tough game. I really want to be with the Bunnies here, as I love a home underdog. I think there’s enough there to justify pulling the trigger on them too, given they’ve had a week off and the Warriors have had a brutal last three weeks of football. They’ve come off a loss to Canberra in the wet, a gusty win against the Dolphins in Queensland, and another tough win against the Dragons by a point. Surely, three tough matchups in a row have to catch up to them, especially against a team coming off a bye week. I also feel like the Rabbitohs have been disrespected by the market this year, considering they’ve got Wayne Bennett in the box and are sitting 6th on the ladder.

* Bets:

* 1.0 unit $1.90 Rabbitohs +2.5

* 1.0 unit $1.79 Race to 30. Neither

   * 1.0 unit $1.94 Alex Johnston anytime tryscorer

   * 0.3 unit $3.40 Rabbitohs -4.5 1st Half Handicap

Panthers vs. Eels

While this is 15th vs. 17th, I reckon this will be one of the games of the round. The Eels are starting to find some form, especially since Moses and Lomax have come back into the side. Then, on the other hand, you’ve got the four-time reigning champions sitting dead last on the ladder. If the Panthers are to make any sort of run to play finals this year, they absolutely HAVE to win this game. It really just comes down to whether Ivan Cleary can motivate these guys to go one more time. I think the answer is yes, and they can. I expect to see the Panthers back to their grinding best, and keep the Eels at bay.

* Bets:

* 1.0 unit $1.90 Panthers -3.5

* 0.1 unit $9.50 Halftime Margin: Draw

Roosters vs. Raiders

Once again, the last game of the week is the match of the round. Here, I'm so conflicted. I’m a Raiders fan, and if you were to ask me which team I despise the most, it’s probably the Roosters. Now I’m faced with the conundrum: do I pull the trigger against my own team? I hate doing it, but the Roosters should get up here, and I’ll explain why. The Raiders were incredibly up for it last week. Emotionally, they couldn’t have been more fired up. You saw Joseph Tapine mouthing off and giving it to his Kiwi representative mates; you saw Tom Starling having a few words of his own too. Then, you’ve got young Tamale, who absolutely gave it to the Warriors fans at the final whistle. Emotionally, they redlined last week. That’s hard to reciprocate. And while Ricky Stuart might be able to start the narrative of a Grand Final loss from six years ago, the team is so different now. It’s just hard to be 'up' each round, especially when they invested as heavily as they did into their Warriors game. Hence, it’s got nothing to do with the Roosters, but I expect them to win, sadly.

* Bets:

* 1.0 unit $1.95 Roosters H2H (I won’t personally be betting it, but it’s part of the tips)

* 1.0 unit $1.90 Race to 30. Neither.

Let’s see what happens this week. I’m more nervous than I have been all season, after having the week we had last week. Anyway, good luck and lets see how this all unfolds. And remember, whatever you do, do it responsibly.