NRL Round 12 Bets

Round 12 is upon us, bringing with it monsoonal rains and teams heavily impacted by Origin selections. Honestly, I'm finding it tough to get a read on things with so many drastic lineup changes. One thing's for certain though: highly volatile periods often present significant opportunities. So, I'm hopeful I can find the right side of these matchups and come out unscathed.

Bulldogs vs. Dolphins

Simply put, I want to be on the Dolphins here. While they lose their greatest attacking weapon in Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, I still believe they can make this an arm wrestle and keep the Bulldogs somewhat at bay. Purely by the numbers, everything points to the Bulldogs – and rightly so, they're leading the comp. They've kept their spine intact and, on paper, should beat the Dolphins easily. That being said, I feel like their last few weeks will catch up with them. A monstrous comeback in a 1-versus-2 clash in Canberra, followed by another 80-minute arm wrestle performance against a pumped-up Roosters side, has to pay its toll. Monsoonal rain and an empty stadium against a fringe top-eight side lead me to believe the Dogs might be in a flat spot. Despite this, I think they've got the class to win, but I'm leaning towards the Dolphins with the start.

* Bets:

* 1.0 unit $1.90 Dolphins +6.5

* 1.0 unit $1.79 Dolphins Over 2.5 tries

* 1.0 unit $1.79 Neither Team to 30

Eels vs. Manly

Oh boy, this one's tough. The Eels have their two best players ripped out of their lineup, while Manly lose Daly Cherry-Evans, who is pivotal to their team. While some might argue that Manly have a huge upper hand retaining Tom Trbojevic during this period, I have my doubts as to how fit he truly is. He looked to be struggling during their win against the Cowboys last week. Given that I don't have a massive preference either way, I'd rather be with the points, especially with the added benefit of CommBank Stadium likely being under water.

* Bets:

* 1.0 unit $1.90 Eels +6.5

* 1.0 unit $1.82 Neither team to 30

* 0.3 unit $3.45 Eels -2.5 1st Half Handicap

* 0.1 unit $10 Manly to lead at Halftime and Lose

Knights vs. Panthers

Again, another game severely impacted by Origin. The Panthers have lost just about half their side, while the Knights lose Kalyn Ponga. Interestingly, I was reading some statistics showing that the Knights in the past two years have a better winning record without Ponga than with him, which I found amusing. No knock on Ponga, but maybe the rest of the side lifts in his absence. As awful as the Knights have been, I can’t touch the Panthers at odds-on with their B-side. Even with their price somewhat ballooning out, I can only justify being with the Knights here. My main worry is that they’ll be just as awful, and I wonder where their points come from without Ponga, Bradman Best, or Greg Marzhew. That being said, the total is a measly 40.5, and the Knights are expected to score less than 3 tries. I’m going to take this on purely on price, and noting that so many changes to the Panthers team have to disrupt the chemistry and synchronization of their defense.

* Bets:

* 1.0 unit $1.74 Knights +7.5

* 1.0 unit $1.80 Knights over 17.5

* 0.5 unit $2.55 Fletcher Sharpe Anytime Tryscorer

Roosters vs. Sharks

Another interesting match where the Sharks remain practically unchanged and unaffected by Origin, whilst the Roosters have lost five players. Even without the Origin changes, the Sharks would have been warm favorites, noting their form line this season. That being said, I’m conflicted in taking them at -10.5. Sure, it’s probably a fair line, noting both how good the Sharks have been and how poor the Roosters have been with the team changes added to that. Despite this, I still find myself siding with the Roosters, but barely. Whilst this goes against everything on paper, I can see the Sharks having a tiny flat spot here after an impressive win at home against the Storm, and having now won three on the trot. I can also see James Tedesco going berserk after missing Origin selection and making this personal. This was the hardest game of the round for me, hence I’ll go into this a bit gun-shy compared to the other matches.

* Bets:

* 1.0 unit $1.87Roosters +10.5

* 0.2 unit $3.10 Tedesco Anytime Tryscorer

* 0.2 unit $3.45 Marky Mark Anytime Tryscore

Warriors vs. Raiders

The final standalone game on Sunday is undeniably the game of the round. We have two top-four teams, each missing just one player due to Origin commitments. The odds on paper are more than justifiable, considering the Warriors are at home and sitting higher on the table. That being said, I question the quality of opposition they’ve come up against recently. While being undefeated for the last five games, their wins have been unconvincing, and while winning ugly is often the sign of a good team, I think the Raiders are going to be too much for the Warriors – a huge step up in class from what the Warriors have been used to.

* Bets:

* 1.0 unit $1.87 Raiders +2.5