NRL Results Summary

After 11 rounds of competition, I've managed to not just survive and keep my head above water, but I've stayed afloat and locked in some decent profit for the season thus far. It mightn’t be as extraordinary as the accounts on Twitter posting 6-figure weekends and hundreds of units of profits, but I am proud of where my P&L sheets stand as of right now. Sure, 12 units doesn't sound like a lot, but these are markets which are wildly scalable. With consistency, I hope to scale my unit sizes to something considerable, but for now it’s just about ensuring

I continue to find quality bets.

I haven’t quite decided how to pretty the data up just yet, so bear with me as I figure this out. But what’s important to me is the context in the data, not the pretty colours.

Here are a few lessons or improvements I've identified after almost half a season:

* I need to get rid of tryscorers. Whilst there are some sharp shooters out there, I’m not one of them. I lack the patience to try yand back someone at $5 that scores in 1/3. I have a “win now” impatient mentality with tryscorers and continually back sub-$2 pops only to lose hard-earned profits.

* I'm parking the two-leg short multis. I haven’t done this in a while, but the first few rounds of the season were plagued with $1.50 into $1.40 legs. Hot tip, they weren’t profitable, and I went 1/4 at close to a 3-unit loss. It's crazy that I could increase my profits by 25% just by deleting these markets out of my arsenal.

* I'll keep backing margins. I’ve only added this recently, and whilst it’s running at a small loss, these markets are usually at large odds. The sample size isn’t big enough to throw away yet, and whilst I have positive ROI on the line, the margins are somewhat a derivative of this. So if I can continue to find line value, I’m sure the margin should eventually tick over to profitable.

* I’ve had a decent read of the Broncos team thus far, especially when betting against them, but also when with them too. The same can’t be said for the three other QLD-based teams, as I’m negative on each of them both when with them or against them.

* I haven’t made a single unit for the last six weeks. Part of me is okay with this, noting that all 27 rounds can’t be profitable. The longer I play this game, the more I realize that this game is about survival, so to speak, between going on hot runs. Though there have been mistakes made, and possibly some over-betting, especially in the past few rounds, I’m proud to have not lost a unit over the last six weeks. I’m sure there’ll be another good run at some point this season, and until then I’m happy to simply “survive.”

And so, the journey continues. 11 down and 16 to go. Each round will offer more insights, and data points which I’ll look to share. I realise I’m a long way from professional, but I’m excited to see the progression over the next 4 months. What markets can I find further value in, what markets can I refine and discard? Either way, I’ll keep posting the progress and adjustments as I go.