11. Failure: Well, Sort Of

This won't be easy. It never is when you share the things you're not so good at. While the early part of this year was fantastic, the past few weeks have been anything but. I succumbed to my old bad habits, and the market crucified me.

The Breakdown of a Bad Streak

So, how did it happen? What happened is something I'm sure happens to so many in this space. I started winning, and I relaxed a little. I won some more and relaxed even more. That meant a little less research, a little less data review, and a little less previewing. From that point, I somewhat kept winning, but hidden in those wins were lucky escapes.

The problem with anything in life is that when you're winning, it's easy to get complacent. That's why you often hear commentary teams say it's not a bad thing for a good team to experience a loss before heading into the finals. Unfortunately for me, all the winning took me so far from my systems. What started as weekly reviews and previews with hours of data, review, and watching highlights turned into me lying on the couch, scrolling through a betting app until I found something that caught my eye.

I got away with it for months. I got way ahead of myself, thinking I was elite and had some god-given talent for picking winning NRL teams. Eventually, my luck ran out. I had to endure some horrendous defeats, but I still blame myself. When I was putting in the work, the review process is where I learned the most. Did I place good bets? Would I take them again? When the reviewing stopped, all I knew was the balance in my account. Bet placement and tracking if I beat the market all went out the window.

The Bottom Line

Eventually, I ran out of the good luck that carried me through my "lucky" patch. First, it was the DWZ scoring a pointless full-field try when the game was dead to sink my line bet. Then, Karapani took an intercept and ran 90 meters on the last play to push the total to overs while I was riding the unders. From there, I watched my Raiders get sunk against the Broncos, and the poor run continued.

The difference this time? I didn't have the control or the discipline I had months earlier. Now I was just backing random stuff off my phone while sitting on the couch. My head had fallen off. There was no review process to go, "look, decent bets, just bad beats." All there was was the balance of the account staring me in the face, creating a sense of pressure. From there, the staking went out the window—not by much, but it still did fail. All of a sudden, I was betting 20% more, then 30%. Luckily, I caught myself before it got out of hand.

Looking Back, Moving Forward

While the past month of betting NRL has been disappointing, the year as a whole has been profitable. It feels good to say that, and it's great to know that all the hard work and hours have paid off. Yet, it's also disappointing to end the year this way, especially after all the momentum and good habits we built early on.

Upon reflection, I'm probably right where I need to be. I learned that I do have an edge, but I also learned that I have massive improvements to make in my discipline and mentality. The reps I put in during the first 20 rounds still count and show real growth, but the regression in these last few weeks has been the reality check I needed. It shows me just how much more I can improve.

Ultimately, it's a bittersweet feeling, but I'm content with where I'm at. I got what I deserved at the end, and it’s made me think a lot about my biggest flaw in general as a person: consistency.