A Week in Review: Riding a Monster Wave

Well, here we are at the end of Week 1 of the blog, and honestly, things couldn't have gone much better. It's funny how momentum shifts. The past month felt like I was stuck in the trenches, churning money week in and week out, only to see returns hovering around slightly negative or slightly positive. It was a huge chunk of work with virtually nothing to show for it, though I should still be grateful it wasn't a month of work for a loss, which is absolutely possible in this brutal game. It's hard to enjoy trading when things aren't going as planned, and amidst that frustration, I decided to hit the 'go' button on this blog and actually document my journey.

It's easy to get carried away by all the high-flying numbers and "perfect" records boasted by tipsters on social media, claiming six-figure weekends. I, on the other hand, wanted to paint a real picture of what my journey actually looks like: the pain of losing money after hours of research, how it feels to quieten that voice in the back of your mind saying "stuff it, let's dial it up now," and the challenge of doing the “boring thing” and consistently consolidating one small win after another. This blog was set up to document the urges to stake up after a losing run to get back to even as soon as possible, and equally, the fight against the instinct to stake down and back off to protect profits after a good run. This is what 'A Trader's Journey' is all about: documenting those inner voices and, hopefully, the progression of my trading path.

NRL: A Standout Week

This may well have been my best week of NRL betting to date. The tips I shared in the preview netted an outrageous 6.19 units. To put this into context, the last month of grinding away had only netted 0.97 units. To add to this, some riskier high odd bets that I didn't post to the blog also came through, taking my total league profit for the week to a whopping 8.82 units.

As mentioned in the round preview, this was always going to be a volatile round due to the Origin period, and volatility can be a blessing or a curse depending on which side you fall. For me this week, it was definitely a blessing. I predominantly backed underdogs, and remarkably, every single underdog of the round found a way to win. I genuinely can't remember that ever happening before. This anomaly is certainly why this week has produced such exceptional results for me personally.

Graphs Below show data from NRL Tips given over the year.

Cricket: Consistent Gains

Cricket was in full swing with both the IPL and PSL approaching finals. Cricket netted a touch over 2.5 units this week. I ended up playing in 17 games, which genuinely surprised me – I hadn't realized I'd placed so many bets. 11 of those 17 were from the IPL and PSL, whilst the other 6 consisted of England Women’s Domestic T20s, West Indies vs Ireland, and Bangladesh vs UAE, often colliding with the IPL time slot. From those 6 other games, I lost 0.22 units. The frustration here isn't the small loss, but rather the fact that these bets took focus away from the major leagues. There was no need to enter those markets, and while the loss of 0.22 units is negligible, it’s about the opportunity cost in the more significant markets. Speaking of the major franchises, I was able to net a healthy 2.76 units, bringing the total for Cricket to 2.62 units for the week. For me personally anything over 1.5 units is huge, as I typically aim to lock away either +0.3 or -0.3 units per match. Hence, 2.62 units is a fantastic return.

Summary

One important thing to note is that positive momentum in one league probably benefited the other. When you have wind in your sails, it’s easier to stick to the process and back value. Where it gets tricky is when you have a heartbreaking last-minute loss in the Rugby, and then you have 30 minutes to compose yourself and trade Cricket, pretending the last two hours never happened. Thankfully, I don’t have to document that specific scenario this week, but it is certainly something I'll look to include going forward.

Above all, I'm particularly proud of sticking to my process – something that has often been a weakness for me. In the past, I've churned money over week by week, either losing or winning marginally, and after a while, I'd decide to take myself on a dopamine-fueled roller coaster with larger stakes. Despite some major highs, this is not the way to win long-term and has definitely cost me in the long run. Now, things feel different. I feel a lot more in control, with a more senior, calm, and resilient head on my shoulders. Maybe it comes with age, or perhaps it's a lesson learned through losing money in my younger days. Either way, I hope this trajectory continues.

This has been my first blog post reviewing the week, and I apologise if it's a bit messy. I'll aim to clean it up as time goes on. Thank you for reading.

The graphs and data show all bets and trades made from the 1st of May 2025.

P.S. If anyone has some feedback, it would be greatly appreciated. Should I continue to blog about Cricket and NRL together in these review posts? Is it too messy this way, or would you rather see them separated? Any criticisms are most welcome too. I'm new to this and would like to improve, so if you do have some pointers or things you don't like, don't hesitate to reach out either via the comments section here or on my Twitter.

Thanks again, all.

Pez