14. Hundred Day Challenge: Week 2 Review

So, another week down in the 100-day challenge. This week, for the sheer hours and effort poured into trading, the financial takeaway was a minor loss of $127.39. Reporting a negative result always sucks, but the size of the loss is minor. What's truly frustrating is the completely avoidable path I took to get there.

The Sin of Over-Trading

Last week, I flagged overtrading as a major weakness. Did I improve this week? Absolutely not. In fact, I regressed.

I traded 16 games of Cricket, when I should have focused on, maybe, four. The other twelve were a mix of:

• Markets I knew nothing about (e.g., Boland vs. Western Province—cue Connor McGregors "Who the fook is that guy?" moment).

• Games I couldn't manage while at work (Ford Trophy, One Day Cup).

• Frivolous bets taken after randomly waking up at 3 AM to check a score (Wonens World Cup Final)

If I had stuck to those 4 core games, I would have netted $141 profit instead of a $283 loss from the other twelve. It's crazy to realize I could put in less work and take home more profit. Beyond the money, I'd preserve my mental capacity for the larger, more liquid events that actually matter.

I mentioned this on X, and I feel it’s worth repeating here: One of my biggest goals is to work like a Lion and not like a Sheep. I need short, sharp, intense bursts of focus that yield maximum results, rather than constantly grazing all day on low-liquidity games I should have no business touching.

Arrogance - Rugby League

Rugby League, my preferred sport where I believe I have a clear edge, became a bloodbath this week, contributing a devastating $999.93 loss.

The root cause? Arrogance. Having an edge in the NRL doesn't automatically translate to an edge in the Pacific Championships. I thought my expertise in one competition would naturally flow into another without any additional work. I couldn't name half of the PNG squad, yet I placed a substantial bet against them. If that wasn't a lesson enough, I repeated the exact same mistake 24 hours later, backing Tonga against the Kiwis. I was horribly, deservedly wrong.

The Melbourne Cup Bailout

Now, I must admit, I know absolutely nothing about Horse Racing. Every year, I spend $150 on the Melbourne Cup, it's my annual "horse budget." It’s the only race I’ll watch all year. To date, I've never had a winner. But this year, somehow, I picked the winner. The research? The Mrs asking ChatGPT for a Horse with a female jockey, and then picking her favourite. Without this unexpected win, this week would have been a catastrophic blood bath. There is luck involved in this game, and it definitely fell my way in that single, decisive moment.

Other rubbish decisions from this week.

Overtrading was my worst sin, but even within the games I should have been playing, my process failed me. Out of the international trades, I can honestly say I executed my plan perfectly only twice. The other two, I deserved to be punished, and I was.

1. Chasing Price: Earlier in the week, I identified Australia as the value play, missed my entry price, and purely due to FOMO, I backed the other side. The result was a massive, entirely avoidable loss.

2. Compounding Mistakes: In the New Zealand vs. West Indies match, I did the right thing by locking in a marginal loss, only to re-enter the market with each subsequent wicket that fell, aggressively adding to my liability. This was another crushing loss that I deserved every single bit of.

Finding the Rhythm, Moving Forward

I'm in a strange phase of trading right now. I'm unsure if I'm low on confidence, rusty, or if this is simply where I stand as a trader today. I believe it's primarily rust. I'm certain that come December, I'll have found my rhythm, after all, this time last year I posted my largest ever month. That groove will return, but I need to increase my chances by treating this game with the respect it deserves, and not frivolously diving in and out of markets as I have been.

Anyway, for those of you who read this far, thank you. Don't hesitate to reach out on X or leave a comment.

Till next time.